Looking Back on NCAA Predictions; Looking Ahead: Men's Recruiting Class Rankings
It's been another long, ugly travel day, with the convergence of thunderstorms and the subsequent power outage with holiday weekend travelers making the Tulsa airport a very chaotic place this morning. One of my fellow travelers (one of the few good-natured ones) didn't care for that adjective. "That implies movement," he said, viewing the static check-in and security lines. "Doesn't seem to be much of that." We settled on "directionless" and tried to be optimistic.
Anyway, I'm back in Kalamazoo, and it's time to look back on the predictions some of you made for the NCAAs. Two of zootennis's most frequent and insightful commenters, Andrew D and Austin (anyone else disappointed Man in the Moon didn't join in the contest?) distinguished themselves, with Austin correctly forecasting the men's doubles winners, the women's team champions and the men's singles. He also placed Georgia in the men's final. Andrew D got the men's singles right (as did Scott, Virginia, Bruddahc, and me [my only correct pick]) but gets all sorts of extra credit for tabbing JP Smith to go deep. Many people have asked if I know who Austin is. I do not, but I certainly appreciate his acumen and hope he continues to post in the same passionate and civilized manner as he's done for the past several years.
Picking the Kalamazoo winners is the next scheduled contest. If all the eligible contenders play, it will be an outstanding field; every time I think I've tabbed all possible winners, someone else springs to mind. And, as a reminder for those who think that picking the top seeds is somehow unworthy, last year only one person had both the 16s and 18s winners, who were, in fact, both No. 1 seeds. This year we'll have the tiebreaker be the dark horse who goes farthest, defining dark horse as someone not among the top eight seeds.
The Tennis Recruiting Network's spring men's recruiting class rankings were released yesterday, and Stanford remains on top, although they were not the unanimous choice. (I was one of the 11 who did put them at No. 1).
Once I get some rest and finish my assignments from the NCAAs, I'll start working on a slide show from Tulsa.
13 comments:
In the spirit of this blog post's title, I think it would be interesting to hear what people think regarding the pro prospects of those players who have just graduated or are tipped to make the move from college to the pro ranks.
Off the top of my head I can think of (women)Riza Zalameda, Kristi Miller, Susie Babos, Zuzana Zemenova, Megan Moulton-Levy, Elena Gantcheva and Lindsey Nelson as graduating seniors who might give the pro game a concerted effort. On the men's side you have, among other, Devvarman, Van't Hof, Ouellette, Travis Helgeson, Poerschke, Begemann, Tveit, Srugo, Flores, Rowe and Huey. Probably can't discount Damico and Clayton jumping early.
So, who do people think has the best chance of adjusting to life on the pro tour? I find it hard imagining Devvarman not doing well and, at least, matching Jesse Levine's efforts. I could also see Van't Hof being successful on the doubles circuit. Apart from that, however, I'm not sure.
I believe Devvarman is the only one out of the men and women who will ever crack the top200. However, I do worry about him a little. I originally thought he would be top100, but now im not so sure. The only true weapon he has are his wheels. Isner had his serve and Anderson had his serve and forehand. That allowed them to shoot up the rankings. I think Devvarman will end up being ranked between 100-140 for most of his career with the possibility of getting hot for a few months and breaking into the top 80-90.
Lindsey Nelson would be the only one on the womens side with a shot, she is a skinny Lindsay Davenport.
Ryan Rowe could be top20 in the world in doubles. Van't Hof maybe top50.
Hopefully everyone makes it, that would be awesome, but gotta play the odds.
I think Huey will make it on the doubles circuit. I would suspect he and Devvarman will play together until SD is playing ATP events, and they I believe have won both futures they competed in together. In watching them play, Huey is arguably the stronger doubles player. Also I would suspect Rowe would make it in doubles as well.
I think Devvarman is probably a top-150 singles player right now. He is still improving though, perhaps he can step it up and be somewhere between 50-100.
Austin, you say that Isner and Anderson both have weapons that have allowed them to succeed on tour but you must also look at the fact that Devverman beat BOTH of them and that clearly shows he can play against a big game. Devvarman will be a top 100 player within 2 years peaking into the top 50 within 4.
Begemann is easily the best doubles player out of any of those. . if anyone makes it on the doubles tour it will be him.
Right, he can beat both of them, as can Jessie Levine. What I am saying is the pro tour is a whole different ballgame. Somdev is a grinder, Isner made the finals in DC because he had 141 aces in five matches, winning the first four via third set tiebreakers. Him and Anderson are difficult games to play against the first time you encounter them. Devvarman is just like a million other guys on tour in terms of his style of play, therefore players will adjust to facing him for the first time more easily than some giant who is 6'9" serving from the trees. Three years ago I thought Ben Dorsch would be top75 immediately after dominating the college game much like Somdev, but it didnt happen. He has been toiling in the minors, tired to qualify at Roland Garros last week. I will be rooting for Devvarman.
Just wondering if anyone knows when the final individual rankings come out>?? And who everyone predicts will be in the top 5
1)Devvarman
2)Ouellette
3)Helgeson
4)Clayton
5)Nedovyesov
1)Van't Hof/Farah
2)Huey/Devvarman
3)Tveit/Berg
4)Vallverdu/Sunberg
5)Fogleman/Kearney
interesting to see that u think helgeson and oulette will still be up there .. i have my doubts about that. .
1) Devvarman
2) Clayton
3) Nedovyesov
4) Begemann
5) Oulette
Also who will start top 5 next year
In terms of someone who may jump and/or make it in the pros, I believe that Andrewd neglected to mention Nate Schnugg.
If he mentioned Damico, I think he should mention Schnugg. Schnugg is taller, has a bigger serve and is a more accomplished doubles player than Damico. He won I believe 3 junior slams with different partners (one was Damico, one has Jamie Hunt). If Schnugg doesn't make it in singles, I think he has a great chance in doubles just like his fellow former Medford, Oregon resident, Jonathan Stark.
I say that because the NCAA Tournament is not weighted, it counts as a normal match. When Benny Becker won it I think he only moved up a few spots.
Austin, but remember that Helgeson lost twice to a player ranked 37 at the time while Oulette lost to Kaes. Also Begemann won against Clayton in their regional and beat Nedovyesov which is two top ten wins. I dont know I guess time will tell. The ranking systems have always confused me.
The new singles rankings have confirmed what a joke the system is !!! JP Smith only 15. Helguson moves up after losing to a non top 20 opponent twice in. And Beidas is only 22. Clayton moves down? Strange.
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